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Impact Of The US-China Trade War On Vietnam’s Manufacturing Sector

In 2018, disbursement of FDI projects in Vietnam reached a record high of USD 19.1 billion, showing the high confidence of foreign investors in Vietnam’s business and investment environments. This is an increase of 9.1 percent year-on-year amid global concerns over the tension caused by the US China Trade War. Additionally, the rapid growth of both privately and state run enterprises such as Vingroup or Viettel is an indication of Vietnam’s economy prosperity and the fact that the country’s business environment is capable of nourishing large corporations of global scale.

However, as tensions over the Trade War continue to escalate in 2019, uncertainly over the status of the global manufacturing sector has continued to plague the industry and much attention has been focused on Vietnam due to the country’s status as an emerging manufacturing hub. Currently, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on USD 250 billion worth of Chinese imports while China has retaliated by imposing tariffs on a cumulative value of USD 110 billion worth of US imports.

In short-term, Vietnam is projected to capture some of China’s global market share in labour-intensive manufacturing, although, in the long-term it is uncertain if Vietnam will continue to benefit from the displacement of manufacturing from China. This is because, Vietnam could face the risk of trade frauds as China looks to route US-bound products through the country to evade existing tariffs at an increasing pace. Furthermore, there is also the risk of Chinese products saturating the Vietnamese market, resulting in increased competition with domestic producers.

Thus, as the trade war drags on, experts have advised Vietnam to develop a new development strategy to evade potential risks. This is also due to the fact that global investors are starting to withdraw their investments from emerging markets, including Vietnam.

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